Bart Schultz
A few weeks ago I happened to see a documentary by the Dutch television channel EO, which mainly focuses on a few families who still live outside the dikes in the Mississippi Delta in houses that are on five metres high poles above the landscape. It concerns almost forty families, who mainly live from fishing and catching shellfish.
In the documentary, an old fisherman is interviewed who fascinates me. The man has lived in the delta his entire life and knows the conditions in the area, I think, like no other. He describes that the delta is increasingly eroding, which means that the sea during hurricanes is becoming an increasing risk to the mainland and to New Orleans. He is therefore well aware of the increasing risk, but even though he lives unprotected in an unsafe place in the delta, he himself does not want to leave.
Our visit in 2003 took place about two years before hurricane Katrina. We were given excellent information by staff from the US Army Corps of Engineers, the Agency responsible for water management and flood protection in the area, about the situation in the delta, the paths that hurricanes follow and the strength of the dikes and other flood protection facilities that were in place at the time. We also visited various relevant places in the delta. I was quite shocked at the time, because it was a patchwork of flood protection provisions. The Army Corps was also very aware of this, but indicated that due to lack of funding, it had not been possible to establish better facilities up to that time.
Hurricanes are classified into five classes. Class 5 is the most severe. The Army Corps knew that up to and including a Class 3 hurricane the dikes would hold, but that things could go wrong above that level. Hurricane Katrina was between Class 3 and 4, and unfortunately things went wrong with all the consequences: 1,800 deaths and US$ 125 billion damage. The dikes have now been repaired and a number of other measures have been taken. However, the level of safety has not been increased, so things can still go wrong with a hurricane stronger than Class 3.
Whenever a hurricane is coming I always watch CNN. They do an excellent job of reporting on such cases with good descriptions of the path and strength of the hurricane, and journalists at the relevant locations. In late August 2008, Class 4 Hurricane Gustav was headed straight for New Orleans, but veered west at the last moment and New Orleans was spared. In late August 2021, it happened again with Ida, a Class 4 hurricane. The population in the flood-prone areas was evacuated. Eventually this hurricane also veered west and New Orleans was spared again.
Let's hope that things will continue to go well in the protected areas for a long time, although the old fisherman in the EO documentary has no confidence in it. When asked if the dikes would hold up during another heavy hurricane, he said that this would not be the case.
